Tuesday, October 30, 2012

CFB: Dominance?

All it takes is a look at the latest BCS standings to see that even though nine weeks have passed in a college football season that has been full of surprise and change, there is one thing that hasn't changed:

The SEC is good.

How good? SEC teams occupy the #1, #5,#6, #7 and #8 spots in the standings. That's more than 1/3 of the conference ranked in the top eight in the country.
Four out of the five rank in the top 10 of at least one of every major statistical category, three in total defense alone. And if that isn't enough, Las Vegas claims that #1 Alabama from the SEC would be a double digit favorite against #2 Kansas St. on a neutral field. In fact, according to Vegas #5 LSU and #6 Georgia would be favored over Kansas and #3 Notre Dame. And Vegas tends to know what there doing. There one if the few that wins more than Nick Saban.

But before we go ahead and crown the SEC with a seventh straight BCS title, lets not overlook a couple of possibilities that could leave the SEC on the outside looking in.
Alabama plays LSU on Saturday in what is all of the sudden a huge game again, especially for the Tigers. After losing to Florida early in the year most had ridden off Les Miles's team. But Saturday is a chance to beat the number one team in the country and put themselves back in the national title picture. It would also make every SEC title contender have 1 loss.
If K State, Notre Dame and Oregon win out then the SEC would be locked out of the championship game.
And before K State fans start to celebrate they had better worry about the two other unbeaten teams. First they have to take care of business but they also will need some help. Notre Dame has to lose a game in order for K State to get in. No way you could argue that the schedule the Irish will have played is not far better than the Wildcats. Hate Notre Dame all you want, but don't disregard common logic. Or common sense.
And although I think Oregon is the second best team in the country they may need more help than K State. The Ducks are about to enter the tough part of there schedule but the "quality wins" won't have as much quality as they thought. They haven't played a top 10 opponent all season and they may only play two ranked in the top 25. If they run the table they will get an extra game that the Irish won't with the PAC 12 title game, but will that be enough? I say no, but will see.
I firmly believe Oregon would give Alabama the best test. Vegas agrees putting the Ducks as only a six point underdog against the Tide. To put that into perspective LSU is getting 11 in Baton Rouge.
There is a lot of football left to be played but this Saturday could really clear some things up.
Or make things really cloudy. An LSU win means the Tigers, Bulldogs, Gators and Tide would all have one loss.
So every team that played against K State and Notre Dame would have a couple million extra fans that weekend.

There are several scenarios that could play out before the season ends.
Im pulling for the one that ends with Alabama and Oregon in Miami.

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